BlackRock sees lower inflows and fears market downturn
But first: Labor productivity in the UK
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Good news: U.S. Long-term unemployment is higher
But we start with the trade war: Brazil’s soybean exporters are likely to gain from the trade war between the U.S. and China, as China imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans: Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-soybean-tariff/ Now the good…
Economic growth in The Netherlands
Today it is a Dutch Day at TeaEconomist: Compared to the OECD, The Netherlands is doing just fine: Wage growth could be higher though: The Dutch expected retireing age is extremely high: Such a progressive…
Trade War!
The teaeconomist is getting ready for a trade war!
Afternoon tea: OPEC & Robots
OPEC got his mojo back: Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-20/opec-races-to-salvage-oil-deal-after-iran-clashes-with-saudis The rise of the robots: Source: https://blogs.imf.org/2018/06/12/chart-of-the-week-japans-robots/
Afternoon tea: The end of ample liquidity?
Tightening of the ECB will come along with collateral damage: upward pressure on worldwide interest rates. The process has already started: Source: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/06/18/1529320756000/European-recovery-is-bad-news-for-the-world-s-bond-prices-/ Jens Weidmann is likely to become the new president of the ECB. Lucky…
Morning tea: 3 graphs
Your morning tea.
When inflation is used as a Golden Tool…
Recently, Borio et al (2018) wrote a paper about how monetary policy is stuck between a ‘growing financial cycle’ and low rates of inflation. Although the growing financial cycles ask for an increase in the rate…
FTPL explained part 2: interest rate
In my previous blog about FTPL, I explained the basic idea of FTPL. In this blog I will dig a bit deeper in the relations between the government, central bank policy and inflation. I also…
Some Worrying Graphs on UK Consumption
SME’s seem to be increasingly reluctant to invest. This seems especially true when SME’s are compaired to large businesses. Besides the well known direct Brexit risks, there might be an indirect Brexit risk: low future…